Cyclicity of Suicides May Be Modulated by Internal or External ≈11-Year Cycles: An Example of Suicide Rates in Finland

Multicomponent cyclicity in monthly suicides (periods T = 18, 46 and 198 months) was found and close similarity with heliogeophysical activity (HGA) suggested by Dimitrov in 1999. The current report aimed at scrutinizing the results on suicide annual cyclicity (seasonality) in Slovenia as reported by Oravecz et al in 2007 as well as at analyzing suicide data from Finland in this regard. We postulated that: (i) trans-year (12-24 months) or far-trans-year long-term cycles of suicides might interfere with their seasonality; and (ii) associations to environmental factors with alike cyclicity (e.g. HGA, temperature) could exist. Annual suicide incidence from Oulu, Finland over years 1987-1999 was analyzed. Annual data on solar activity (sunspot index Rz or Wolf number), planetary geomagnetic activity (aa-index) and local daily mean temperatures were used. The exploration of underlying chronomes (time structures) was done by periodogram regression analysis with trigonometric approximation. We analyzed temporal dynamics, revealed cyclicity, decomposed and reconstructed significant cycles and correlated the time series data. Suicide seasonality in Slovenia during the years 1971-2002 (n=384 months, peak May-June) was considered and, although some discrepancies and methodological weaknesses were suspected, we further hypothesized about trans-year and/or longer (far-transyear) cyclic components. Suicide incidence data from Finland indicated that the 12.5-year cyclic component (or trend) was almost parallel (coherent) to the cyclic heliogeophysical parameters and similar to local decreasing temperature dynamics. Also, 8-year and 24.5-year cycles were revealed. A correlation between the 12.5-year suicide cycle and 11-year solar cycle was found (R=0.919, p=0.000009). Above findings on cyclicity and temporal correlations of suicides with cyclic environmental factors, even being still preliminary, might not only allow for further more specific analyses. They might also corroborate to improved forecasting and prevention and confer a better understanding of suicide dynamics and aetiology. © 2009 BBSCS RN SWS. All rights reserved.